인도연구소 인문한국플러스(HK+)사업단 김찬완 소장(한국외국어대학교 국제지역대학원 인도·아세안 학과 교수)과 공동연구원 Mohammad Masudur Rahman 교수가 공동으로 집필한 논문 "Indo-Pacific cooperation: what do trade simulations indicate?"(Journal of Economic Structure 9(1), 2020)이 인도의 금융일간지 Mint의 2020년 11월 9일자 기사 "Reimagining the Quad as a trade alliance"에 인용되었다.
인도연구소 인문한국플러스 사업단은 2017년 "인도의 대전환과 인도학의 한국적 재해석"라는 아젠다 하에 연구를 지속해오고 있다. 위 논문은 경제 분과의 대주제인 "강한 인도, 성장의 인도"와 관련된 연구물이다.
Reimagining the Quad as a trade alliance
1 min read.Updated: 09 Nov 2020, 10:10 AM ISTShijith Kunhitty
India’s Quad alliance with the US, Australia and Japan is primarily a military one, but could also form the basis of a trade agreement with major benefits, says a study
Recent tensions with China have led to renewed talk in India about using the ‘Quad’ alliance to counter the neighbour. Quad, which comprises India, Japan, Australia and the US, is mainly thought of in military terms. What if it were to become a trade partnership? Simulations by academics show it could bring about significant gains for India’s economy and exports.
Mohammad M. Rahman, Chanwahn Kim and Prabir De simulate free trade agreements where different combinations of countries around the Indian and Pacific Oceans, such as the Quad, stop imposing import duties and quotas on each other’s goods. Each combination of countries is subjected to two free trade scenarios. In one, they only scrap import duties, and in the other, they also cut trade costs by 25%, by, for example, speeding up movement of goods by reducing bureaucratic red tape at borders and ports.
In a Quad trade agreement where bilateral tariffs are scrapped, India’s real GDP could increase by 0.2% or $2.7 billion a year, while exports could rise by 2.5% or $5.7 billion. Sectors where India’s exports are competitive such as clothing, textiles and light manufacturing would gain the most.
In the second scenario, where the Quad does away with tariffs and lowers trade costs by 25%, India’s real GDP could increase nearly 2% or $23.5 billion a year. The fact that reducing trade costs expands the GDP gains from $2.7 billion in the first scenario to $23.5 billion in the second shows how much of a barrier these costs are.
The authors suggest that if ever a Quad trade agreement were to become a reality, a reduction in trade costs would go a long way towards fulfilling the economic potential of the alliance.